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The gap between the supply of and demand for fully
credentialed teachers is expected to increase over the next decade.
Here we explain how teacher supply and demand is projected, as well
as some of the technical issues involved.
Projecting Demand for
Teachers
The demand for teachers in California grew dramatically in the last
half of the 1990s and is expected to grow steadily through 2007–08,
followed by a slight decrease after that year. In fact, the size
of the teacher workforce has grown from 219,300 K–12 teachers
in California in 1991–92 to approximately 306,800 teachers
in 2001–02, an increase of 40 percent over the last decade.
This increase in demand was driven by three factors:
- a significant growth in student enrollment,
which now totals more than 6 million;
- the implementation of class-size reduction
in 1996–97, which increased the need for K–3 teachers;
and
- attrition and retirement of working teachers.
In California, statewide data do not permit precise
analyses of attrition and retirement. At best, we can estimate attrition
and retirement by comparing annual changes in the number of teachers
for each hypothetical cohort (as defined by years of teaching experience).
We estimate that annual attrition is approximately 4.5 percent of
the total workforce and that retirement is approximately 1.7 percent.
The projected increase in the demand for teachers
through 2007–08 is driven by Department of Finance projections
that show student enrollment and the teacher retirement bulge peaking
in that year (retirement rates are calculated using data from the
California State Teachers’ Retirement System). More specifically,
student enrollment is projected to peak at 6.26 million in 2007–08
and then to decrease slightly to 6.22 million in 2010–11, requiring
315,000 teachers in that year. In addition, we can expect teacher
retirement rates to increase as baby boomers start to reach retirement
age. In fact, we estimate that the annual retirement rate for teachers
will peak in 2007–08 at 5 percent. Thereafter, the retirement
rate will begin to decline, but in 2010–11, it still will be
approximately 4 percent of the workforce, compared with today’s
estimated rate of 1.7 percent.
Projecting the Supply
of Teachers
The supply of credentialed teachers increased from approximately
202,700 in 1991–92 to 265,100 in 2001–02, an increase
of 31 percent over the last decade. However, the supply of credentialed
teachers is estimated to decline slightly in the next decade, dropping
to approximately 250,000 teachers in 2010–11. These estimates
are based on current levels of credential production, participation,
attrition and retirement. As mentioned before, the reduction is
due mainly to the fact that many credentialed teachers will be retiring
in the next decade. On the basis of these projections, we estimate
almost 210,000 new hires from 2002–03 to 2010–11.
We define the supply of credentialed teachers
as the number of teachers who hold preliminary or professional clear
credentials and are willing to take jobs at the salary, assignment,
location and working conditions offered.
Each year, qualified teachers come from multiple
sources. The largest source is the base of veteran credentialed
teachers continuing in the profession. Other sources include:
- teachers who left teaching for a period of
time and later re-enter the teacher workforce (very little is
known about the size of the re-entrant pool in California, however);
- out-of-state teachers
(credentialed teachers prepared in other states); and
- newly
credentialed teachers.
Technical Note
Projections for the teacher workforce are imprecise because historical
and current data do not permit accurate measures of teacher job-taking,
attrition and retirement in California. Our purpose here is not
to present definitive projections, but rather to propose reasonable
outcomes based on the best available data of historical trends.
Exogenous conditions, particularly changes in the economy that impact
the availability of attractive jobs in the private sector, may influence
the number of individuals attracted to the teaching profession,
the number of individuals who choose to take jobs after attaining
a credential and the number of individuals willing to re-enter the
profession. Additionally, due to the limitations of available state
data, these projections do not include estimates of the number of
teachers who are teaching “out of
field” (in an assignment other than the one for which they
hold a credential). Despite these limitations, this method of projecting
teacher supply and demand has been used for four successive years
and thus far has proven to be remarkably accurate.
Additional Resources
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