San Diego Union-Tribune

Shortage possible in the next decade

By Chris Moran
April 7, 2008

More than 2,000 teachers countywide – about 8 percent of local teachers – have been told they could lose their jobs if Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's proposed state budget passes.

The layoff notices aren't final, but educators and analysts say the effect on schools could be harmful for years to come.

Thousands of potential educators may be driven from the profession, spooked by the suddenly shaky job prospects, said Margaret Gaston, executive director of The Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning, a nonprofit organization based in Santa Cruz.

If that happens, the state could come up short as school districts seek to replace 100,000 teachers expected to retire in the next decade, as well as those who change professions, move out of state and leave to raise families.

This is all occurring as the number of people taking the teaching profession's state entrance exam has declined by 32 percent in the past five years, according to a report that will be given this week to the California Commission on Teacher Credentialing. The report also documents a sharp drop in the number of people enrolled in credentialing programs.

The effect of this year's layoff notices could complicate recruiters' efforts to meet the long-term demand for teachers, said Chris Reising, director of the Teacher Recruitment and Support Center run by the County Office of Education.

“We hear all the time, 'How can there be jobs when there are all these layoffs?' ” Reising said.

The alarm about the future of the teaching corps has been raised before. A decade ago, the California State University system pledged to step up education of teachers to meet a forecasted shortage. Yet local districts have reported a plethora of candidates for teaching positions in recent years.

Even in its call for a long view on producing new teachers, The Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning has no prediction of how many will be needed in the next decade.

It doesn't forecast how many teachers will leave the profession for reasons other than retirement. Nor does it predict whether more or fewer teachers will be needed without knowing whether the recent decline in student enrollment will reverse.

Although the state budget for the fiscal year that begins July 1 hasn't been approved, school districts were required to tell teachers by March 15 if they might be laid off.

The notices have been widespread. Guillermo Gomez, a former county teacher of the year, got one, and so did 24 of the 26 teachers at a City Heights elementary school in San Diego. Chula Vista teachers with as much as nine years of experience have been told they might not have jobs next year.

During the most recent layoff scare, in 2003, 20,000 teachers statewide received layoff notices, The Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning said. About 3,000 of them lost their jobs.

In the following two years, the number of university students enrolled in teacher preparation programs in California dropped by nearly 9,500, the center said.

At San Diego State University, the number of liberal studies majors – the major for students who intend to pursue elementary school teaching credentials – dropped by 500 from 2003 to 2005, a 30 percent decline.

“We still haven't recovered from it yet,” Gaston said.

State Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell talked about what he called the “pipeline” problem during a visit to San Diego's Lincoln High School last month. O'Connell said the threat of budget cuts could nudge would-be teachers into other academic majors if they perceive a tough teaching job market.

Phoebe Roeder, San Diego State's liberal studies coordinator, said her students are well aware of the layoff notices. Some students are considering different career plans, Roeder said. Others remain on a teaching path. Still others intend to stay in school another year for an advanced degree or other credentials.

Mark Baldwin, dean of Cal State San Marcos' School of Education, said the university will reach out to recent graduates to market administrative credentials, master's degrees and other extra training. Baldwin also has invited colleagues from Glendale to come to a local job fair to look at his students.

“We're looking at alternative ways to keep them in the profession,” Baldwin said. “We could have a hole in the workforce suddenly that's kind of an unanticipated consequence of what's going on right now.”

Students in the Southwestern College Teacher Education Preparation Program said they are resolved to pursue a teaching career despite the current hard times. Natalia Leyva of Chula Vista said the state budget crisis means she may have to leave San Diego to teach.

“I think people that are going to be very good teachers are thinking about leaving California,” Leyva said.

Fort Worth, Texas, is counting on it. The school district there has purchased billboard space in Pacific Beach advertising teaching openings.

Reising said that in addition to continued shortages in math, science and special education, as retirements take effect there will be a wave of openings among the elementary ranks.

Take Chula Vista Elementary School District. It issued 400 layoff notices, yet expects to lose 125 teachers this year to retirements, resignations, family leaves and moves out of the area, said Tom Cruz, Chula Vista's assistant superintendent for human resources. Attrition and retirements will continue to drive demand to fill the 1,500 teaching jobs in his district.

“There will be jobs,” Cruz said.

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